Friday, February 10, 2012
2011 Prediction Results
OK, crazy new job in Q3 last year and I'm finally catching up on the blog. I FINALLY got to my 2011 predictions so let’s see how I did.
11 Predictions Over 11 Months in 2011.
1. Google Gets Into the Music Business
This comes first as I know people in the music business who got drafted by the Search Goliath. Rock on.
This did come about but where is Google taking this? My insiders won’t reveal any details but the quiet makes me think there are some big announcements on the way in the coming months. Grade: A+
2. Facebook Places Kills Foursquare
I’m sorry but why would any advertiser invest in a still-niche platform like Foursquare when you have 500M peeps on Facebook who can’t resist to tell the world they’re having a freaking latte at Starbucks. Foursquare=DeepSix
Well there certainly isn’t as much buzz about Foursquare but it’s still alive. What isn’t clear is what’s the deal with Facebook places? I for one, don’t get the whole geo-me-me-me announcements. I don’t want the home invaders to know when I’m out having a good time. Grade: C+
3. MySpace Implosion Continues
Their focus on music and entertainment was a brilliant move…that they should have done 7 years ago. Too late, Mr. Murdoch, yo space just ain’t cool no mo.
Despite the relaunch and refocus and some heavy input from mega-star Justin Timberlake, MySpace continues to be absent in the trades and industry buzz. Big layoffs, rejiggering of focus and business model and lack of buzz makes me think my prediction was on track here. Grade: B+
4. Microsoft Shutters Zune
I would consider it a mercy killing. Does ANYONE other than Microsoft peeps subscribe to this brick and bits outfit?
Not yet, but does ANYONE care? Grade: B
5. Privacy Issues Cripple Behavioral Targeting Companies
If the FCC and privacy advocates have their way they’re going to squash the Big Brother precision delivery of ad targeting to our every keystroke and mouse click and with it, billions of dollars in ad spends and thousands of jobs.
I was off. And with anonymous targeting in the behavioral space this isn’t going to happen. Grade: F
6. Apps Spaces Get a Housecleaning
Average usage of apps are just 3 times once they’re downloaded and Apple says there are over 100,000 iPhone apps of which about 100 are useful. Recent studies show 27% of apps are only used once after being downloaded. Time for a housecleaning. Expect app standards to have higher bars.
As predicted Apple has put down the clamp on junk apps and copycat wannabes. Grade: A
7. Google Gets Into the Digital Magazine Business
If they don’t they like totally need to wear helmets on the bus.
Right prediction, wrong company. Amazon takes the lead and kills with Kindle Fire while Apple launches Newsstand with massive immediate ramifications. Grade: B
8. Apple Flattens
Despite Verizon picking up the iPhone and the 3G dropping to $49 on AT&T - not to mention the tres-sexy iPad, a barrage of tablets and competing handsets are going to chip away at market share…add to that Mr. Jobs health issues and the crisp, juicy promise of Apple earnings calls will sour by Q4.
The fruit de jour continues to dominate the electronics space, despite Android staling market share. No one can bang out bottom line gold like Apple. Grade: D
9. Tablets dominate
PCs will be the new desktop. Remember those?
Kindle Fire, iPad2, Newsstand. Nuff said. Grade A
10. Traditional Agencies Suffer Major Contraction
Oh, the overhead. Many of these agencies remind me of high-end resort casinos…opulent surroundings and full of pretty people…someone’s gotta be paying for it and it’s brand America and Mr. & Ms. Consumer. Watch more brands attach themselves to smaller, nimbler and smarter shops who take more of a consultancy role with their partners and collaborate on greatness.
The madness continues but budgets are shifting. Major media companies continue to invest heavily in digital technology, with the future of connected devices, multiscreen interactivity and consumer touchpoints from mass market reach down to point of purchase changing the game. Stay tuned here. Grade: B-
11. Digital Dominates
Print shrivels, Cable TV stagnates and digital in its many forms continues to prove it is the medium – there will be no other.
Smart Phones, Tablets and Connected TVs continue to innovate and change the way we live our lives. The numbers are there – the dollars are shifting to real ROIs on media spends and digital is where it works best. Grade: A
Overall not a bad performance for a crystal ball-less hack. We’re on track for more crazy shifts in media in the months to come. Gotta love it!
Overall Grade: B+