Wednesday, February 2, 2011

11 Predictions 11 Months in 2011

Since I already missed the first month of 2011, I thought I'd take an 11.11.11 approach to my predictions this year...

Here goes...


11 Predictions Over 11 Months in 2011.

In no particular order and based entirely on my channeling of that creepy ghost in Scrooge – I have seen the future and it looks like this…

1. Google Gets Into the Music Business

This comes first as I know people in the music business who got drafted by the Search Goliath. Rock on.

2. Facebook Places Kills Foursquare

I’m sorry but why would any advertiser invest in a still-niche platform like Foursquare when you have 500M peeps on Facebook who can’t resist to tell the world they’re having a freaking latte at Starbucks. Foursquare=DeepSix

3. MySpace Implosion Continues

Their focus on music and entertainment was a brilliant move…that they should have done 7 years ago. Too late, Mr. Murdoch, yo space just ain’t cool no mo.

4. Microsoft Shutters Zune

I would consider it a mercy killing. Does ANYONE other than Microsoft peeps subscribe to this brick and bits outfit?

5. Privacy Issues Cripple Behavioral Targeting Companies

If the FCC and privacy advocates have their way they’re going to squash the Big Brother precision delivery of ad targeting to our every keystroke and mouse click and with it, billions of dollars in ad spends and thousands of jobs.

6. Apps Spaces Get a Housecleaning

Average usage of apps are just 3 times once they’re downloaded and Apple says there are over 100,000 iPhone apps of which about 100 are useful. Recent studies show 27% of apps are only used once after being downloaded. Time for a housecleaning. Expect app standards to have higher bars.

7. Google Gets Into the Digital Magazine Business

If they don’t they like totally need to wear helmets on the bus.

8. Apple Flattens

Despite Verizon picking up the iPhone and the 3G dropping to $49 on AT&T - not to mention the tres-sexy iPad, a barrage of tablets and competing handsets are going to chip away at market share…add to that Mr. Jobs health issues and the crisp, juicy promise of Apple earnings calls will sour by Q4.

9. Tablets dominate

PCs will be the new desktop. Remember those?

10. Traditional Agencies Suffer Major Contraction

Oh, the overhead. Many of these agencies remind me of high-end resort casinos…opulent surroundings and full of pretty people…someone’s gotta be paying for it and it’s brand America and Mr. & Ms. Consumer. Watch more brands attach themselves to smaller, nimbler and smarter shops who take more of a consultancy role with their partners and collaborate on greatness.

11. Digital Dominates

Print shrivels, Cable TV stagnates and digital in its many forms continues to prove it is the medium – there will be no other.

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